India announced on Thursday that it had carried out early morning “surgical strikes” on terrorist camps in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, a step that risks escalating the conflict between the two nuclear powers.
However, Pakistan
denied that a cross-border strike had taken place, saying that Indian
troops had fired small arms across the Line of Control, killing two
soldiers and injuring nine.
A senior Pakistani security official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said Pakistan would consider a cross-border strike by India an act of war.
The official warned that Pakistan could use tactical nuclear weapons in self-defense if India initiates a war.
The
Indian operation, if it occurred as described in Delhi, would be
precedent setting. Though India’s military has almost certainly carried
out cross-border raids, the government has never publicly announced
them, even during the brief conflict in Kargil in 1999.
Indian
officials said that ground troops crossed the de facto border shortly
after midnight and destroyed a handful of terrorist camps in
Pakistani-controlled territory, inflicting “significant casualties” and
returning across the Line of Control before dawn.
The
operation was planned in retaliation for two attacks this month on
Indian positions, including one that killed 19 Indian soldiers.
Thursday’s announcement suggests that Prime Minister Narendra Modi
of India is more confident than his predecessors that India can use
force against Pakistan without risking an escalation into full-scale
war.
“They think that the escalation ceiling, beyond which Pakistan will be forced to respond, is higher than previously assessed, and therefore they are willing to do more than India has done previously,” said Ashok Malik, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a policy organization based in New Delhi.
“India
was exercising cross-L.O.C. options that were very close to doing
nothing,” he said, referring to the Line of Control. “It is willing to
go a little further.”
Delhi
may also be counting on intervention from Washington, which is
cultivating a closer strategic relationship with India, and which could
put pressure on Pakistan not to retaliate, said Myra MacDonald, the
author of “Defeat is an Orphan: How Pakistan Lost the Great South Asian
War.”
“If
it does turn out to be a one-off, yes, they could have set a new norm
in terms of how they respond to attacks,” she said. The shift, she said,
reflected India’s growing confidence in its “diplomatic cover.”
“Nobody is really going rally to support Pakistan on this,” she said.
Hours
before the strike was reportedly begun, the United States national
security adviser, Susan E. Rice, spoke by telephone with her Indian
counterpart, Ajit Doval. Ms. Rice’s office released a statement critical
of Pakistan, saying the United States expects Islamabad to “take
effective action” to combat terrorist groups.
The news sent tremors through Indian financial markets, with the country’s benchmark stock index, the Sensex, plunging 465 points, or around 1.6 percent. But social media erupted with congratulations for Mr. Modi.
Local
residents reported heavy shelling near the Pakistani border, and
villagers took shelter in underground bunkers used during previous
violations of the cease-fire along the Line of Control.
Arun
Khajuria, who lives in the Punch district, near where the raid took
place, said he woke his family at 5:30 a.m. and found many of his
neighbors already in the bunker. The shelling ended two hours later, he
said.
The chief minister of Punjab advised civilians living within six miles of the Pakistani border to seek “safer locations.”
Indian officials said the move had been a response to two terrorist attacks on Indian positions.
Lt.
Gen. Ranbir Singh, the Indian director general of military operations,
said India received “very credible and specific information” on
Wednesday that teams of militants had positioned themselves at bases and
were planning attacks on Indian-controlled Kashmir and “in various other metros in our country.”
“Significant
casualties have been caused to the terrorists and those who are trying
to support them,” he said, adding that he had spoken to his Pakistani
counterpart on Thursday and “shared with him the operations we had
conducted last night.”
Pakistani
officials dismissed India’s claims, saying India had simply targeted
military positions. Lt. Gen. Asim Saleem Bajwa, a Pakistani army
spokesman, called the reports “an illusion” and “a fabrication of the
truth.”
Nevertheless,
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced a series of high-level meetings,
suggesting that Islamabad is contemplating how to respond.
“No
external force has the capability or capacity to challenge the
sovereignty and territorial integrity of Pakistan,” Mr. Sharif said in a
statement. “The entire nation is standing behind our valiant Armed
Forces.”
Hasan
Askari Rizvi, a prominent Pakistani defense analyst, said many in
Pakistan saw India’s announcement as playing to domestic sentiments.
“There was pressure on the Indian government,” he said. “Hence, they are
portraying this as a surgical strike to shape public opinion.”